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CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 000076

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL : 01/12/2017
TAGS: PTER UN NP

SUBJECT: NEPAL: POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE WEST AGREE MAOISTS
HAVE NOT CHANGED

REF: 06 KATHMANDU 3248

Classified By: CDA Nicholas J. Dean. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).
Summary

1.1. (C) Leaders of the main political parties from 12
districts in western Nepal told Emboff during a driving tour
from December 14-25 that the Maoists were effectively in
control of their districts. The only difference between the
Maoists before the April 2006 cease-fire and after the
cease-fire was that the Maoists were not killing people
anymore. Most agreed that the Maoist intimidation and
violence were making it difficult for political party workers
to function in the countryside. Most party leaders were
pessimistic about the prospect for free and fair elections
any time soon.

Maoists Control Western Nepal

12. (C) During Emboff 's driving tour of the western (around
Pokhara), mid-western (around Birendranagar ) , and far-western
(around Dipayal) development regions from December 14-25,
political leaders in 12 districts stated that the Maoists
were effectively in control of their districts. Emboff met
with leaders from the three main parties — Nepali Congress
(NC), the Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D), and the
Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) --
in every district, and additionally with the smaller Nepal
Sadbhavana Party-Anandi Devi (NSP-A) and the People's Front
Nepal (PFN) in two districts. Leaders in all the districts
told of continued Maoist violence and intimidation. Across
the country, one common message from all political leaders
was that the situation with the Maoists was essentially the
same as before the April 2006 cease-fire; the "only thing
that is different is that the Maoists are not killing people
now . "

Party Leaders Displaced in Dang

f3 . (C) In Dang District, political leaders flatly stated that
they were scared of the Maoists, and did not feel like they

could stand up to them. The leaders in Dang said they were
not convinced that the Maoists were willing to ever give up
their ideology of violence, because then they would lose
their perceived power. The leaders in the district had all
been displaced from their homes in the countryside by the
Maoists during the decade-long insurgency, and had not yet
been allowed to return. In fact, they said, the Maoists had
not allowed them or their party workers to travel outside of
the district headquearters . The NC leader in Dang told of a
fellow NC worker who had recently attempted to do some work
in the countryside outside of Tulsipur. When the Maoists
found out he was there, they abducted him and beat him badly,
then returned him to his home in Tulsipur with orders to ask
permission before attempting to do political work outside of
the city.

Problems in Pyuthan

14. (C) In Pyuthan District, the leaders of the three main
parties told Emboff that the Maoists had taken over every
level of local governance, including forestry and water users
groups. All development projects, the leaders claimed, were
being used by the Maoists to assert control over the
countryside. The CPN-UML leader in Pyuthan said that the
Maoists were "wreaking havoc" on the countryside, and the
villagers were afraid of them.

Parties Scared in Rolpa

1.5. (C) In Rolpa District, Emboff met with the leaders of the

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three main political parties and the PFN in a locked room in
the back of a hotel because the party leaders were afraid the
Maoists might hear them talking badly about the Maoists and
"punish them." Most of the leaders said they had family or
property outside of Liwang, the district headquarters, that
the Maoists had threatened to hurt or destroy if they acted
against them. They shared a laundry list of Maoist
atrocities in the district, including, but not limited to:
roadblocks, extortion, abduction, child recruitment, carrying
weapons, wearing combat fatigues to intimidate villagers,
continued violence, and threats against people and property.
The leaders in Rolpa said that the Maoists had begun to allow
them to "work freely" outside of Liwang, but only if they
signed an agreement with the Maoists. In that agreement, the
parties had committed not to say anything negative about the
Maoists or the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), and to only
use certain words ( "King" was forbidden and "democratic
republic" was required) .

Situation Bad in Salyan

1[6 . (C) In Salyan District, the leaders of the three main
parties said that fear of the Maoists in the countryside had
not decreased at all since the cease-fire. All political
leaders in the district had been displaced from their homes
and the Maoists had not allowed them to return.

Maoists Leave Cantonments in Kailali

f.7 . (C) In Kailali District, the parties told Emboff, "we are
afraid, the people are afraid, and no one is doing anything
to make the situation better." The leaders in Kailali
complained that, during a recent Maoist-called transportation
strike (reftel), members of the Maoist People's Liberation
Army (PLA) came out of their cantonments with weapons and
threatened people who tried to break the strike, adding to
the fear in the district. The leaders said that every time
something like that happened, trust of the Maoists declined
immensely .

Fear Palpable in Achham

T_8 . (C) In Achham District, Emboff met with leaders from the
three main parties on a hilltop in a darkened, locked room
lit only by candlelight. The leaders were so afraid of the
Maoists overhearing what they were saying that they had
people standing watch outside the building to warn of someone
approaching. Every time the wind blew the door or the
windows, the leaders stopped talking to ask, "who is there,
who is approaching?" In lowered voices, the political party
leaders recounted stories about how the Maoists continued to
threaten them and their families if they said negative things
about them. The leader of the NC-D in Mangalsen, the
district headquarters, said that the Maoists were still out
in the rural villages with weapons, and continued to threaten
and intimidate the villagers. All three parties complained
that the Maoists could not be trusted, and were convinced
that the Maoists would stop at nothing short of complete
power .

Other Problems in the Terai

19 . (C) In Kapilbastu District in the Terai, the three main
parties and the NSP-A said they were allowed to work
relatively freely by the Maoists, as long as they did not say
anything negative about them. However, the Maoists had not
allowed any of the leaders to return to their homes in the
countryside yet. In the Terai districts, most political
leaders were more concerned with the Janatantrik Terai Mukti
Morcha (JTMM) — the Terai People's Liberation Front -- than
with the Maoists. The JTMM, a splinter faction of the
Maoists, had been killing and intimidating openly in the
south of the country. One leader in Banke District said, "if

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it is not the Maoists, it is the JTMM."
Free and Fair Elections Impossible

1.10. (C) The leaders in most districts worried that free and

fair elections would not be possible in their districts
unless the Maoists completely gave up their ideology of
violence and intimidation. In Kapilbastu District, the
CPN-UML leader stated that it would be difficult to hold
elections by June, but if they had to, it would only be
possible with a large contingent of UN and other
international monitors on the ground. Leaders of the NC in
Tulsipur (Dang District) said there was "no hope" for
elections by June, and "probably not in the next year."

Delay of Elections May be Necessary

1.11. (C) In Pyuthan District, the CPN-UML and NC leaders said
that elections had to be held on time in June, regardless of
whether they were free and fair, to "hold the Maoists to
their commitments." The NC-D leader in Pyuthan disagreed,
stating that elections needed to be delayed until later to
make sure that voter education and security could happen
first. In Rolpa District, the leaders of the three main
parties stated that it would not matter if the election were
delayed for five or even ten years if the Maoists did not
give up their ideology of violence. Leaders in Rolpa worried
that the Maoists had shown no signs of giving up that
ideology and wanted to control any elections that might
happen in the future. Leaders of the three main parties in
Dang said that until the Maoists allowed political leaders
and villagers to return to their villages, there could not be
accurate voter registration.

Maoists Will Win by Intimidation

112. (C) In the far-west districts of Kailali, Dadeldhura,
Doti, and Achham, the situation was even worse. Most
political leaders in these districts said it was important to
hold elections, but predicted that the Maoists would win in
many places purely through intimidation and violence. In
Achham, the CPN-UML leader told Emboff that Maoists had
already told many villagers that the Maoists would keep track
of their votes. If they voted against the Maoists, the
Maoists would punish them or their families. The Maoists
admonished the villagers that "we do not need our weapons, we
can use sticks or our fists."

Comment: Maoist Strategy Unchanged

11_13. (C) The fact that the Maoists had not changed in the
countryside since the April 2006 cease-fire was not
surprising, although the extent of their intimidation and
violence was unexpected. For arms management and the peace
process to be successful, Maoist militia and political cadre,
as well as combatants in the cantonments, will need to give
up their weapons. Political party leaders made it clear,
however, that giving up weapons alone would not change the
situation in the countryside. Maoists would also have to
give up their strategy of using fear to control the people.
Indications are that the Maoists do not plan to give up this
strategy anytime soon — but instead plan to move full-speed
ahead toward a Maoist-dominated People's Republic of Nepal.

Comment: But We Can Still Shape Election Outcome

t.14. (C) The Maoist-dominated political situation across
western Nepal is negative, with little to give us hope for a
free and fair elections without the re-establishment of law
and order. However, the political party leaders are present,
and ready to become actively engaged in politics again should
the peace process deliver security. We should continue to

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strengthen the peaceful, democratic political parties to
stand up to Maoist intimidation and extortion during the
lead-up to the planned Constituent Assembly election in June.

The situation in the countryside underscores the need for
large numbers of international observers on the ground
soonest in order to have credibly free and fair elections.
DEAN